Jahmyr Gibbs’ Receiving Yards:
The Lions made a bold move by trading away D’Andre Swift and selecting Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round. Gibbs has proven himself as a versatile player, excelling in the passing game during his college career. With a remarkable catch percentage of 78% and an average of nearly 10 yards per target, Gibbs is expected to play a significant role in the passing game on Thursday night. Moreover, his exceptional speed and ability to make big gains make him an enticing option for the Lions. With a top-tier offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson, who is known for his creativity, Gibbs will likely have plenty of opportunities to shine.
Game Script and Defense:
As the Lions are 6.5-point underdogs, the game script favors Gibbs. If the Chiefs take a big lead, the Lions might rely heavily on their passing game, giving Gibbs more opportunities to accumulate receiving yards. Additionally, the Chiefs allowed an average of 47.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs last year, which was among the top five in the league. This further supports the case for betting on Gibbs’ over-receiving yards.
Absence of Chris Jones:
The likely absence of pass rusher Chris Jones works in Gibbs’ favor. With a reduced pass rush, the rookie running back may not be required to contribute as much to pass protection and can focus on running routes. This increases his chances of accumulating receiving yards.
Betting Opportunities:
bettors have already taken advantage of the opening lines, driving the receiving yardage over/under from the mid-20s to over 30 yards at most books. However, as of Tuesday, some books still offer the Jammer Gibbs over/under at 29.5 yards, making it an attractive bet. Considering the potential 60/40 split of snaps and Gibbs’ ability to make big gains, betting on his milestone of 125 total yards at +700 is also worth considering. Furthermore, with a reception total of 3.5 and a long reception of 14.5 yards, betting on the over 29.5 receiving yards is a play that can be extended up to 32.5 or 33.5 yards.
Andy Reid’s Success and Backdoor Potential:
When analyzing this matchup, it is crucial to consider Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s success with ample time to prepare. He has an impressive record of 22-3 straight up (SU) following a bye week in the regular season and 9-3 SU in the playoffs. Furthermore, Reid has a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) record in season openers since Patrick Mahomes became the Week 1 starter, averaging 37.8 points per game. However, the backdoor potential of the Detroit offense, led by offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, should not be underestimated. Johnson is ranked as the best offensive coordinator by Pro Football Focus, and the absence of pass rusher Chris Jones could give him more time to execute his game plan.
Additional Note: Travis Kelce’s Potential Absence:
It is important to note that there is a possibility that Travis Kelce, the star tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs, might not be available for Thursday night’s game due to a hyperextended knee he suffered in practice. This development has had an impact on the spread, with the line shifting from -6.5 to -5. Kelce’s absence could potentially affect the Chiefs’ offensive game plan and the overall dynamics of the matchup. Bettors should consider this factor when making their wagers.
Prediction: Over 53.0
Main Markets:
Kansas City ML: -225
Detroit ML: +185
Over/Under: 53.0 -110
Kansas City -5 -110
Detroit +5 -110
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