A closer look at NFL week 1 underdogs and predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers:
When the Steelers are underdogs, especially at home, they have a remarkable track record. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has a 64% winning rate against the spread as an underdog since 2007. Additionally, as home underdogs, they boast a 74% ATS clip. The Steelers showed promise towards the end of last season, with their defense stepping up and rookie QB Kenny Pickett finding his rhythm. With the possible absence of key players for the 49ers, such as Nick Bosa and George Kittle, the Steelers’ chances of covering the spread look promising.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers:
The Dolphins made an excellent defensive coordinator hire in Vic Fangio, giving their defense a clear identity. Fangio’s zone-heavy defense should help Miami limit big plays, which plagued them last season. On the other hand, the Chargers made a change at offensive coordinator, shifting towards a more aggressive downfield passing approach. However, the Chargers have struggled against Fangio’s defense in the past, with a 2-4 SU and ATS record in six meetings. With the Dolphins’ offensive firepower and the potential improvement of their defense, they are poised to cover the spread in this matchup.

New York Jets (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills:
The Jets’ acquisition of Aaron Rodgers has raised expectations for the team. With Rodgers at the helm and a surplus of skill talent, the Jets have the potential to be a top-tier offense. Additionally, their defense is projected to be among the top five in the league. Despite this, the public sentiment is against the Jets, with the majority of bets favoring the Bills. It’s worth noting that heavily bet teams, with 60% or more of the bet count, have historically performed poorly against the spread. Therefore, it might be wise to take the Jets as underdogs in this matchup.

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