Alcaraz’s Performance Thus Far:
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has been in fine form throughout the tournament, dropping just one set en route to the semifinals. Despite facing some challenges, including a tough match against Dan Evans in the third round, Alcaraz has showcased his resilience and determination. However, it is worth noting that he has yet to put together a complete match where he looks unstoppable. While his recent victories may be attributed to a lack of focus or boredom, Alcaraz has proven he can rise to the occasion in big matches.
Medvedev’s Journey to the Semifinals:
Daniil Medvedev entered the US Open without a run to the semifinals in the lead-up events, raising questions about his form. However, the Russian has answered those questions emphatically, displaying his tenacity and skill. He overcame challenging conditions and deficits in his last two matches against Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev, ultimately rating his level of play as a “10 out of 10.” Medvedev’s ability to adapt to difficult situations and his experience as a former US Open champion make him a formidable opponent.
Head-to-Head Battles:
Alcaraz and Medvedev have met twice before, with the Spaniard emerging victorious on both occasions in straight sets. However, these matches were played on different surfaces, including hard courts and the slow courts at Indian Wells. Alcaraz’s success against Medvedev can partly be attributed to the surface not favoring the Russian’s playing style. This time, the hard court surface at the US Open provides Medvedev with a better chance of defeating Alcaraz. As a master strategist, Medvedev has likely analyzed their previous encounters and devised a game plan tailored to this hard court Slam.
Betting on the Match:
Considering Medvedev’s recent strong performances on his favored surface and Alcaraz’s relatively flat showings in his last couple of wins, the Russian enters the match as a 5.5-game underdog. However, it would be unwise to underestimate Medvedev’s abilities. Known for his tactical acumen, he is likely to come out with a slightly more aggressive approach and a different game plan to counter Alcaraz’s strengths. While Alcaraz may overpower Medvedev at times, it is highly probable that Medvedev will cover the spread. Thus, betting on Medvedev to cover the 5.5-game spread seems like a reasonable choice.
Prediction: Medvedev +5.5
Main Markets:
Carlos Alcaraz ML: -350
Daniil Medvedev ML: +275
O/U: 37.5
Carlos Alcaraz: -5.5 -110
Daniil Medvedev +5.5 -125
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