In this MLB betting preview, we’ll take a closer look at the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves. Both teams are vying for playoff spots, making this game even more crucial. We’ll analyze the starting pitchers, key statistics, and betting lines to provide insights for sports gamblers.
Steele’s Strikeout Prop:
Left-hander Justin Steele takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs and has been impressive throughout the season. Although he may not be a frontrunner in the NL Cy Young race, Steele has put together a tremendous campaign with a 16-5 record, a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. His strikeout rate and chase rate also rank well among his peers.
Steele’s strikeout prop for this game is set at 4.5, which he has surpassed in each of his past 10 starts. Despite facing a formidable Braves lineup, Steele has managed to reach this mark in his last two starts, even though he allowed six earned runs in each outing. This suggests that even if he gives up runs, he is still capable of accumulating strikeouts.
Braves’ Struggles Against Lefties:
The Atlanta Braves are known for their dominance at the plate, leading several offensive categories in the league. However, they have not performed as well in terms of strikeout percentage (K%) when facing left-handed pitching over the past two months. Five of their nine hitters in the projected lineup for this game have strikeout rates above 22% against lefties this season.
In his previous encounter with the Braves, Steele collected seven strikeouts in less than six innings of work. Moreover, the current Braves lineup, in a total of 44 plate appearances against Steele, has a 25% strikeout rate. These numbers indicate a favorable matchup for Steele, increasing the likelihood of him surpassing his strikeout prop.
Bryce Elder’s Performance:
On the other side, right-hander Bryce Elder will take the mound for the Braves. Elder has a respectable 12-4 record, a 3.63 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP through 30 starts. However, when comparing statistics and analytics, Steele outperforms Elder in various categories.
While the Braves may have the hitting advantage, the Cubs’ lineup is also strong and ranks in the top eight in runs scored per game, on-base percentage, and slugging. With the Cubs needing a win in this crucial game, Steele is expected to step up and limit the Braves’ offense.
Betting Analysis:
The Braves opened as -152 favorites, and the line is expected to shrink due to Steele’s strong performance. However, betting against the Braves at home is not typically favored by the market, leading to a potential quick buy-back.
The total for the game opened at 9.5, and it is unlikely to move to double digits despite the strong lineups. In the past nine meetings between these teams, seven have seen nine or fewer total runs scored. If you believe in a low-scoring game, now might be the right time to consider the Under.
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